Zac Blair over Lucas Glover
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Rocket Classic
-109 · Betcris · 1u
Sealed · 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29
Staked playWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability62.7%
Market probability51.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+11.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 62.7% |
| Market probability | 51.0% |
| Difference | +11.7 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +11.7 pts: our 62.7% against the market’s 51.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.3% expected value a unit at -109
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
revision 5, rank 4 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 85e895f2-2ef4-4d16-a46f-e8ff3473131a; draw dd7c9e8d-4228-4fb4-ab19-b8198a3479ed
- The market holds the other side at 49.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -109 is 52.2%; our cushion past it is +10.6 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account