Harry Higgs in a 3-ball
Round 1 3-ball v Austin Smotherman, Vince Whaley · Event 557
+220 · FanDuel
Sealed · 8:39 PM ET, Sep 15
Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability32.7%
Market probability30.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+1.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 32.7% |
| Market probability | 30.8% |
| Difference | +1.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +1.9 pts: our 32.7% against the market’s 30.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.7% expected value a unit at +220
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 8, rank 5 of 1106 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 6 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 534314f6-8a1b-4c48-ac91-953a6984c355; draw 273ebd6e-ea10-4668-9f35-e21502b196b0
- The market holds the other side at 69.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +220 is 31.3%; our cushion past it is +1.4 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account