Russell Henley over Ben Griffin
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Rocket Classic
-105 · bet365 · 1u
Sealed · 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29
Staked playWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability54.2%
Market probability50.6%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+3.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 54.2% |
| Market probability | 50.6% |
| Difference | +3.6 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +3.6 pts: our 54.2% against the market’s 50.6% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.5% expected value a unit at -105
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
revision 5, rank 2 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 1 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 85e895f2-2ef4-4d16-a46f-e8ff3473131a; draw dd7c9e8d-4228-4fb4-ab19-b8198a3479ed
- The market holds the other side at 49.4%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -105 is 51.2%; our cushion past it is +2.9 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account