Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability71.3%
Market probability89.5%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−18.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 71.3% |
| Market probability | 89.5% |
| Difference | −18.2 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −18.2 pts: our 71.3% against the market’s 89.5% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -4.4% expected value a unit at -1000
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 5, rank 5 of 310 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 4fab4d58-09ed-4de1-9d2a-b46355e08285; draw 7552df87-4e28-42a3-a763-2af2bf978897
- The market holds the other side at 10.5%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -1000 is 90.9%; our cushion past it is −19.6 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
