Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability41.5%
Market probability37.3%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+4.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
41.5%
Market probability
37.3%
Difference
+4.2 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +4.2 pts: our 41.5% against the market’s 37.3% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.3% expected value a unit at +180
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
The golf case
daily card r3 revision 3, rank 1 of 42 round-scoped sides; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (retail gate 2026-08-01); consensus of 6 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
