Need A Birdie

David Skinns over Sahith Theegala

Round 4 matchup · Wyndham Championship

+138 · DraftKings · 1.5u

Sealed · 10:31 PM ET, Aug 8

Staked playWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability49.4%
Market probability42.8%
Difference+6.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability49.4%
Market probability42.8%
Difference+6.7 pts

Why this made the card

  • The raw disagreement is +6.7 pts: our 49.4% against the market’s 42.8% with the juice removed
  • The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.6% expected value a unit at +138
  • It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

The golf case

daily card r4 revision 1, rank 2 of 98 round-scoped sides; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 4 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast a1001d5f-b20a-4504-bff5-bd0823730d5c; draw a773f6b7-c73e-40ee-b289-7e55803d6e07

What can beat us

  • The market holds the other side at 57.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
  • Break-even at +138 is 42.0%; our cushion past it is +7.4 pts
  • One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.

Model runanchored-machine-2026-08-04-venuefix · 10:31 PM ET, Aug 8Data sourcesData Golf · live odds boards · hourly weatherConvictionTier BView the Ledger →