Matt Fitzpatrick over Scottie Scheffler

• The raw disagreement is +9.0 pts: our 43.0% against the market’s 34.0% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: 1.0% expected value a unit at +188
• It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

daily card r1 revision 3, rank 1 of 90 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 66.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at +188 is 34.7%; our cushion past it is +8.3 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.