Nico Echavarria in a 3-ball
Round 1 3-ball v Chris Kirk, Nick Taylor · Wyndham Championship
+230 · FanDuel
Sealed · 8:01 PM ET, Aug 5
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability32.8%
Market probability30.2%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 32.8% |
| Market probability | 30.2% |
| Difference | +2.6 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.6 pts: our 32.8% against the market’s 30.2% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.0% expected value a unit at +230
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 13, rank 1 of 1371 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 8 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 973a9d06-4db0-4159-b853-d4f3b3c6d7f6; draw a4950b87-0f4a-4347-bf33-60ac5c61fe2e
- The market holds the other side at 69.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +230 is 30.3%; our cushion past it is +2.5 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account