Billy Horschel over Max Greyserman

• The raw disagreement is +5.5 pts: our 50.0% against the market’s 44.5% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.5% expected value a unit at +115
• It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

revision 3, rank 5 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 1 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 55.5%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at +115 is 46.5%; our cushion past it is +3.5 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.