Round 1 3-ball v Austin Eckroat, Jackson Suber · Event 557
+360 · FanDuel
Sealed · 4:51 PM ET, Sep 16
Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability32.2%
Market probability20.3%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+11.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
32.2%
Market probability
20.3%
Difference
+11.9 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +11.9 pts: our 32.2% against the market’s 20.3% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.5% expected value a unit at +360
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 12, rank 1 of 1141 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 8 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
