Ryo Hisatsune over Xander Schauffele
Round 3 matchup · Event 27
+175 · Caesars · 1.5u
Sealed · 10:45 PM ET, Aug 14
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability43.0%
Market probability37.1%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+5.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 43.0% |
| Market probability | 37.1% |
| Difference | +5.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +5.9 pts: our 43.0% against the market’s 37.1% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.6% expected value a unit at +175
- It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 1 of 98 round-scoped sides; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 9f4d07f3-8033-4d1a-bd5a-269eaef2d97c; draw 7a8714ff-03b2-4a91-afee-6a3c741e17b8
- The market holds the other side at 62.9%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +175 is 36.4%; our cushion past it is +6.7 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account