Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability5.6%
Market probability2.9%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.8 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 5.6% |
| Market probability | 2.9% |
| Difference | +2.8 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.8 pts: our 5.6% against the market’s 2.9% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -7.7% expected value a unit at +3900
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 1, rank 1 of 101 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 61761071-1706-469d-8bcc-c7beb744e889; draw 20c8ba43-5b0b-4f30-8542-98fc79937363
- The market holds the other side at 97.1%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +3900 is 2.5%; our cushion past it is +3.1 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
