Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability9.9%
Market probability13.9%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−3.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 9.9% |
| Market probability | 13.9% |
| Difference | −3.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −3.9 pts: our 9.9% against the market’s 13.9% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -14.7% expected value a unit at +550
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 1, rank 3 of 147 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 4 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast f6f9629c-c73c-4246-95fd-2343d691d65b; draw 37accb81-55bb-4506-aac0-ce915bbbbcab
- The market holds the other side at 86.1%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +550 is 15.4%; our cushion past it is −5.5 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
