Denny McCarthy in a 3-ball

Round 1 3-ball v Rico Hoey, Sam Stevens · Wyndham Championship

+180 · FanDuel

Sealed · 11:01 PM ET, Aug 4

Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability39.5%

Market probability35.2%

Difference+4.4 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	39.5%
Market probability	35.2%
Difference	+4.4 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +4.4 pts: our 39.5% against the market’s 35.2% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.7% expected value a unit at +180
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 9, rank 2 of 1293 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 4753d5be-71eb-43ba-834f-cb2cda0d9686; draw a494df3b-6a75-4a86-b55a-768b1175e5ba

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 64.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +180 is 35.7%; our cushion past it is +3.8 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.