Round 1 3-ball v Corey Conners, Andrew Novak · Event 528
+290 · FanDuel
Sealed · 11:45 PM ET, Oct 20
Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability32.7%
Market probability24.1%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+8.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
32.7%
Market probability
24.1%
Difference
+8.6 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +8.6 pts: our 32.7% against the market’s 24.1% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.7% expected value a unit at +290
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 8, rank 5 of 1043 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 8 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
