Collin Morikawa over Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 527
-111 · FanDuel
Sealed · 10:45 AM ET, Oct 6
Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability54.7%
Market probability52.0%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+2.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 54.7% |
| Market probability | 52.0% |
| Difference | +2.7 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.7 pts: our 54.7% against the market’s 52.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.6% expected value a unit at -111
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 3, rank 5 of 648 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast ef573a2a-e196-41cb-af15-4248f0f5bc08; draw 02b13ad6-91cb-4400-b415-dff9ee08957e
- The market holds the other side at 48.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -111 is 52.6%; our cushion past it is +2.1 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
