Mac Meissner over Harry Hall

Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 554

-111 · FanDuel

Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Sep 28

Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability60.3%

Market probability50.5%

Difference+9.8 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	60.3%
Market probability	50.5%
Difference	+9.8 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +9.8 pts: our 60.3% against the market’s 50.5% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.0% expected value a unit at -111
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 3, rank 3 of 636 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 2 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast fa20a7ae-95b1-4608-8903-2475f7ac5f3f; draw 22dc7bee-d487-4e1d-bd4f-6e4058c24a26

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 49.5%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at -111 is 52.6%; our cushion past it is +7.7 pts
It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.