Mac Meissner over Johnny Keefer
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 557
-125 · FanDuel
Sealed · 6:01 PM ET, Sep 14
Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability56.7%
Market probability54.1%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 56.7% |
| Market probability | 54.1% |
| Difference | +2.6 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.6 pts: our 56.7% against the market’s 54.1% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -4.5% expected value a unit at -125
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 1, rank 3 of 591 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 712bc7e3-fa0c-4e42-a7b6-41fa6960b80a; draw 9d89fd64-48f7-4ca3-a240-93ba6f103c0f
- The market holds the other side at 45.9%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -125 is 55.6%; our cushion past it is +1.2 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
