Doug Ghim over Justin Lower
Round 3 matchup · Rocket Classic
-165 · Bovada
Sealed · 7:37 AM ET, Aug 1
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability61.8%
Market probability65.7%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−4.0 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 61.8% |
| Market probability | 65.7% |
| Difference | −4.0 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −4.0 pts: our 61.8% against the market’s 65.7% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.1% expected value a unit at -165
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 5 of 194 round-scoped sides; price is best of 6 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 707fc993-a159-49f7-8adc-c98edfdf0b0d; draw fd6fd3e0-c6ff-4eae-9dad-dee4e72e1f52
- The market holds the other side at 34.3%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -165 is 62.3%; our cushion past it is −0.5 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
