Jonathan Byrd in a 3-ball

Round 1 3-ball v Austin Eckroat, Jackson Suber · Event 557

+360 · FanDuel

Sealed · 6:01 PM ET, Sep 15

Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability32.2%

Market probability20.4%

Difference+11.8 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	32.2%
Market probability	20.4%
Difference	+11.8 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +11.8 pts: our 32.2% against the market’s 20.4% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -0.6% expected value a unit at +360
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 6, rank 1 of 982 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 3c72287f-9bf1-476c-8d05-6f5fb08c7961; draw 273ebd6e-ea10-4668-9f35-e21502b196b0

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 79.6%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +360 is 21.7%; our cushion past it is +10.5 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.