Beau Hossler over Marco Penge

Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 557

+100 · BetMGM

Sealed · 9:45 AM ET, Sep 16

Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability57.4%

Market probability47.4%

Difference+10.0 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	57.4%
Market probability	47.4%
Difference	+10.0 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +10.0 pts: our 57.4% against the market’s 47.4% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.7% expected value a unit at +100
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 10, rank 5 of 1106 priced sides this week; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 1 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 2f537e55-c2de-4b81-a6f5-e55eb7e7e5cf; draw 0582758a-cf23-4b27-9985-005c609dd449

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 52.6%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +100 is 50.0%; our cushion past it is +7.4 pts
It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.