Keegan Bradley over Michael Thorbjornsen
Round 3 matchup · Rocket Classic
+100 · FanDuel
Sealed · 10:45 AM ET, Aug 1
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability48.6%
Market probability48.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−0.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 48.6% |
| Market probability | 48.8% |
| Difference | −0.2 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −0.2 pts: our 48.6% against the market’s 48.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -4.0% expected value a unit at +100
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
daily card r3 revision 3, rank 5 of 42 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (retail gate 2026-08-01); consensus of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast bc8b3d74-1acb-4557-8074-d5797b9c58ac; draw ead1d2f0-c417-4a97-93ba-e12198967894
- The market holds the other side at 51.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +100 is 50.0%; our cushion past it is −1.4 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
