Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability53.5%
Market probability45.9%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+7.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
53.5%
Market probability
45.9%
Difference
+7.5 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +7.5 pts: our 53.5% against the market’s 45.9% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.5% expected value a unit at +110
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 13, rank 4 of 1371 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
