Need A Birdie

Robert MacIntyre over Scottie Scheffler

Round 3 matchup · Event 28

+250 · DraftKings · 2u

Sealed · 10:31 PM ET, Aug 21

Staked playVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability38.9%
Market probability27.9%
Difference+11.0 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability38.9%
Market probability27.9%
Difference+11.0 pts

Why this made the card

  • The raw disagreement is +11.0 pts: our 38.9% against the market’s 27.9% with the juice removed
  • The edge survives the blend into the market: 2.3% expected value a unit at +250
  • It cleared the stake floor at tier A, 2u

A number we sized up on.

The golf case

daily card r3 revision 1, rank 1 of 90 round-scoped sides; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 1798a062-2bf4-4db3-a8cf-9b18d2c7171b; draw 2ceeda04-26f7-4bd4-8466-7b7c7d11e040

What can beat us

  • The market holds the other side at 72.1%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
  • Break-even at +250 is 28.6%; our cushion past it is +10.3 pts
  • One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.

Model runanchored-machine-2026-08-04-venuefix · 10:31 PM ET, Aug 21Data sourcesData Golf · live odds boards · hourly weatherConvictionTier AView the Ledger →