Ryan Fox over Xander Schauffele
Round 4 matchup · Event 60
+188 · FanDuel · 2.5u
Sealed · 10:31 PM ET, Aug 29
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability47.8%
Market probability34.9%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+12.8 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 47.8% |
| Market probability | 34.9% |
| Difference | +12.8 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +12.8 pts: our 47.8% against the market’s 34.9% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 3.0% expected value a unit at +188
- It cleared the stake floor at tier A, 2.5u
A number we sized up on.
daily card r4 revision 1, rank 1 of 44 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 3b500090-454d-4b80-986c-d0dc02fb8739; draw 60db3a45-a7fa-4925-bc3b-d28f05c1be2f
- The market holds the other side at 65.1%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +188 is 34.7%; our cushion past it is +13.0 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account