Christo Lamprecht in a 3-ball
Round 2 3-ball v Adrien Dumont De Chassart, Ben James · Wyndham Championship
+650 · BetMGM · 1u
Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 6
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability19.7%
Market probability14.7%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+4.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 19.7% |
| Market probability | 14.7% |
| Difference | +4.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +4.9 pts: our 19.7% against the market’s 14.7% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.2% expected value a unit at +650
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r2 revision 2, rank 2 of 140 round-scoped sides; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 7b739bf8-528f-47fb-8089-c6159400b61e; draw 963f7382-9782-4430-8427-4283695edc87
- The market holds the other side at 85.3%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +650 is 13.3%; our cushion past it is +6.3 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.