Need A Birdie

Christo Lamprecht in a 3-ball

Round 2 3-ball v Adrien Dumont De Chassart, Ben James · Wyndham Championship

+650 · BetMGM · 1u

Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 6

Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability19.7%
Market probability14.7%
Difference+4.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability19.7%
Market probability14.7%
Difference+4.9 pts

Why this made the card

  • The raw disagreement is +4.9 pts: our 19.7% against the market’s 14.7% with the juice removed
  • The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.2% expected value a unit at +650
  • It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

The golf case

daily card r2 revision 2, rank 2 of 140 round-scoped sides; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 7b739bf8-528f-47fb-8089-c6159400b61e; draw 963f7382-9782-4430-8427-4283695edc87

What can beat us

  • The market holds the other side at 85.3%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
  • Break-even at +650 is 13.3%; our cushion past it is +6.3 pts
  • One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.

Model runanchored-machine-2026-08-04-venuefix · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 6Data sourcesData Golf · live odds boards · hourly weatherConvictionTier CView the Ledger →