Need A Birdie

Kevin Streelman in a 3-ball

Round 2 3-ball v Kevin Yu, Brian Campbell · Wyndham Championship

+270 · FanDuel · 1.5u

Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 6

Staked playWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability34.8%
Market probability28.2%
Difference+6.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability34.8%
Market probability28.2%
Difference+6.6 pts

Why this made the card

  • The raw disagreement is +6.6 pts: our 34.8% against the market’s 28.2% with the juice removed
  • The edge survives the blend into the market: 1.2% expected value a unit at +270
  • It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

The golf case

daily card r2 revision 2, rank 1 of 140 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 7b739bf8-528f-47fb-8089-c6159400b61e; draw 963f7382-9782-4430-8427-4283695edc87

What can beat us

  • The market holds the other side at 71.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
  • Break-even at +270 is 27.0%; our cushion past it is +7.8 pts
  • One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.

Model runanchored-machine-2026-08-04-venuefix · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 6Data sourcesData Golf · live odds boards · hourly weatherConvictionTier BView the Ledger →