Need A Birdie

The Ledger · Season 2026 · append-only · every row sealed before the gun

Append-only · no edits, ever

The permanent receipt

A row is written before the event with the price taken, the book, the stake and both probabilities at that moment. A correction is a new row, never an edit, so our mistakes stay on the page next to their fixes. Nothing published ever leaves this page.

Rows sealed
661
the whole log, drafts and all
Wagers
31
rows that carried money
Graded
31
settled on final scores
Standing
0
sealed, not yet graded
No Plays
48
published, never staked
Corrections
10
appended, never edited · 582 superseded drafts kept

Row by row, newest card first

Every row of every card that stood, the No Plays included. A No Play is graded for calibration but was never a wager.

Wyndham Clark over Xander SchauffeleEvent 527 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:45 AM ET, Oct 7+120Caesars60.4%43.1%0u−0.0 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-77133523
Sealed
9:45 AM ET, Oct 7 · revision 8, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 60.4% · market 43.1% · edge +17.3 pts
Close
drift −0.0 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+120 at Caesars
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Rickie Fowler over Alex SmalleyEvent 527 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:45 AM ET, Oct 7+100BetMGM54.2%49.8%0u−2.4 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-2E00714A
Sealed
9:45 AM ET, Oct 7 · revision 8, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 54.2% · market 49.8% · edge +4.4 pts
Close
drift −2.4 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+100 at BetMGM
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Rickie Fowler over Sungjae ImEvent 527 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:45 AM ET, Oct 7+100FanDuel59.9%47.4%0u+0.0 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-EF10D1DD
Sealed
9:45 AM ET, Oct 7 · revision 8, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 59.9% · market 47.4% · edge +12.5 pts
Close
drift +0.0 pts toward our side
Retail shelf
+100 at FanDuel
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Keith Mitchell over Jordan SpiethEvent 527 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:45 AM ET, Oct 7-110DraftKings57.0%50.1%0u+0.0 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-26ACDDFA
Sealed
9:45 AM ET, Oct 7 · revision 8, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 57.0% · market 50.1% · edge +6.9 pts
Close
drift +0.0 pts toward our side
Retail shelf
-110 at DraftKings
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Michael Kim over Kevin YuEvent 527 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:45 AM ET, Oct 7+120Caesars44.3%46.8%0u−2.7 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-97222B5C
Sealed
9:45 AM ET, Oct 7 · revision 8, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 44.3% · market 46.8% · edge −2.4 pts
Close
drift −2.7 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+120 at Caesars
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Rows only ever get added, so this page can only get longer. The log holds 661 sealed rows; 31 carried money.
What each state meanspush, dead heat, void, correction, No Play and pass, defined once
Standing
sealed before the gun; the market has not graded it yet.
Won / Lost
settled on the final scores, exactly as the market settles.
Dead heat
a tie under the market’s rules; the settlement splits accordingly.
Push
the market returned the stake; no units move.
Void
the market voided the play, a withdrawal being the usual reason; the stake returns.
No Play
published and graded for calibration, never staked; it carries no money and never joins the record.
Pass
a side we priced and declined to publish. A pass counts in our own accounting; the nearest misses appear on the watch list, never here as wagers.
Correction
a fact restated after the seal, as a new appended row naming its author, its time and its reason. The original stands forever.
Superseded
a pre-gun draft replaced by a later revision. It stays on the log next to its replacement.

Tournament and season results live in the track record; this is the receipt behind them, row by row, forever.