Need A Birdie

The Ledger · Season 2026 · append-only · every row sealed before the gun

Append-only · no edits, ever

The permanent receipt

A row is written before the event with the price taken, the book, the stake and both probabilities at that moment. A correction is a new row, never an edit, so our mistakes stay on the page next to their fixes. Nothing published ever leaves this page.

Rows sealed
345
the whole log, drafts and all
Wagers
29
rows that carried money
Graded
29
settled on final scores
Standing
0
sealed, not yet graded
No Plays
28
published, never staked
Corrections
10
appended, never edited · 288 superseded drafts kept

Row by row, newest card first

Every row of every card that stood, the No Plays included. A No Play is graded for calibration but was never a wager.

Ryan Fox over Xander SchauffeleEvent 60 · Daily Card · R4 · Round 4 matchup10:31 PM ET, Aug 29+188FanDuel47.8%34.9%2.5u−2.2 pts−2.50uLost
Pick ID
NAB-F90AE846
Sealed
10:31 PM ET, Aug 29 · revision 1, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 47.8% · market 34.9% · edge +12.8 pts
Close
drift −2.2 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+188 at FanDuel

The full instrument and verification view →

Alex Smalley over Xander SchauffeleEvent 60 · Daily Card · R2 · Round 2 matchup11:03 PM ET, Aug 27+165Caesars46.6%36.8%1.0u−1.1 pts+1.65uWon
Pick ID
NAB-5F24BD96
Sealed
11:03 PM ET, Aug 27 · revision 1, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 46.6% · market 36.8% · edge +9.7 pts
Close
drift −1.1 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+165 at Caesars

The full instrument and verification view →

Rows only ever get added, so this page can only get longer. The log holds 345 sealed rows; 29 carried money.
What each state meanspush, dead heat, void, correction, No Play and pass, defined once
Standing
sealed before the gun; the market has not graded it yet.
Won / Lost
settled on the final scores, exactly as the market settles.
Dead heat
a tie under the market’s rules; the settlement splits accordingly.
Push
the market returned the stake; no units move.
Void
the market voided the play, a withdrawal being the usual reason; the stake returns.
No Play
published and graded for calibration, never staked; it carries no money and never joins the record.
Pass
a side we priced and declined to publish. A pass counts in our own accounting; the nearest misses appear on the watch list, never here as wagers.
Correction
a fact restated after the seal, as a new appended row naming its author, its time and its reason. The original stands forever.
Superseded
a pre-gun draft replaced by a later revision. It stays on the log next to its replacement.

Tournament and season results live in the track record; this is the receipt behind them, row by row, forever.