The Ledger · Season 2026 · append-only · every row sealed before the gun
Append-only · no edits, ever
The permanent receipt
A row is written before the event with the price taken, the book, the stake and both probabilities at that moment. A correction is a new row, never an edit, so our mistakes stay on the page next to their fixes. Nothing published ever leaves this page.
- Rows sealed
- 345 the whole log, drafts and all
- Wagers
- 29 rows that carried money
- Graded
- 29 settled on final scores
- Standing
- 0 sealed, not yet graded
- No Plays
- 28 published, never staked
- Corrections
- 10 appended, never edited · 288 superseded drafts kept
Row by row, newest card first
Every row of every card that stood, the No Plays included. A No Play is graded for calibration but was never a wager.
EventAllEvent 557Event 60Event 28Event 27Wyndham ChampionshipRocket ClassicStateAllStandingGradedNo PlaySuperseded
Robert MacIntyre over Scottie SchefflerEvent 28 · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:31 PM ET, Aug 21+250DraftKings38.9%vs27.9%2.0u−0.6 pts+0.00uVoid
- Pick ID
- NAB-F29C1DA3
- Sealed
- 10:31 PM ET, Aug 21 · revision 1, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 38.9% · market 27.9% · edge +11.0 pts
- Close
- drift −0.6 pts away from our side
- Retail shelf
- +250 at DraftKings
Matt McCarty over Matt FitzpatrickEvent 28 · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:31 PM ET, Aug 21+200Caesars37.9%vs34.0%1.0u+1.4 pts−1.00uLost
- Pick ID
- NAB-8A7F21BB
- Sealed
- 10:31 PM ET, Aug 21 · revision 1, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 37.9% · market 34.0% · edge +3.9 pts
- Close
- drift +1.4 pts toward our side
- Retail shelf
- +200 at Caesars
Rory McIlroy over Scottie SchefflerEvent 28 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes5:45 AM ET, Aug 20+250FanDuel40.1%vs28.4%1.0u−1.6 pts+2.50uWon
- Pick ID
- NAB-23ABC32D
- Sealed
- 5:45 AM ET, Aug 20 · revision 18, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 40.1% · market 28.4% · edge +11.6 pts
- Close
- drift −1.6 pts away from our side
- Retail shelf
- +250 at FanDuel
Matt Fitzpatrick over Scottie SchefflerEvent 28 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup5:45 AM ET, Aug 20+180DraftKings43.0%vs35.0%1.0u−1.0 pts+1.80uWon
- Pick ID
- NAB-3AB22807
- Sealed
- 5:45 AM ET, Aug 20 · revision 18, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 43.0% · market 35.0% · edge +8.0 pts
- Close
- drift −1.0 pts away from our side
- Retail shelf
- +180 at DraftKings
Sepp Straka over Sungjae ImEvent 28 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup5:45 AM ET, Aug 20+135BetMGM46.9%vs42.6%0u−2.1 pts·No Play
- Pick ID
- NAB-AF233065
- Sealed
- 5:45 AM ET, Aug 20 · revision 18, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 46.9% · market 42.6% · edge +4.3 pts
- Close
- drift −2.1 pts away from our side
- Retail shelf
- +135 at BetMGM
- Grade
- graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.
Akshay Bhatia over Hideki MatsuyamaEvent 28 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup5:45 AM ET, Aug 20+150Caesars45.7%vs39.5%0u−1.6 pts·No Play
- Pick ID
- NAB-FE45BE4B
- Sealed
- 5:45 AM ET, Aug 20 · revision 18, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 45.7% · market 39.5% · edge +6.2 pts
- Close
- drift −1.6 pts away from our side
- Retail shelf
- +150 at Caesars
- Grade
- graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.
Tommy Fleetwood over Xander SchauffeleEvent 28 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes5:45 AM ET, Aug 20+105Caesars60.4%vs47.4%0u−1.4 pts·No Play
- Pick ID
- NAB-14FD7839
- Sealed
- 5:45 AM ET, Aug 20 · revision 18, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 60.4% · market 47.4% · edge +13.0 pts
- Close
- drift −1.4 pts away from our side
- Retail shelf
- +105 at Caesars
- Grade
- graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.
Matt Fitzpatrick over Scottie SchefflerEvent 28 · Daily Card · R1 · Round 1 matchup11:46 PM ET, Aug 18+188FanDuel43.0%vs34.0%1.5u+0.4 pts+2.82uWon
- Pick ID
- NAB-BD0DDAD6
- Sealed
- 11:46 PM ET, Aug 18 · revision 3, the card that stood
- Sealed numbers
- ours 43.0% · market 34.0% · edge +9.0 pts
- Close
- drift +0.4 pts toward our side
- Retail shelf
- +188 at FanDuel
What each state meanspush, dead heat, void, correction, No Play and pass, defined once
- Standing
- sealed before the gun; the market has not graded it yet.
- Won / Lost
- settled on the final scores, exactly as the market settles.
- Dead heat
- a tie under the market’s rules; the settlement splits accordingly.
- Push
- the market returned the stake; no units move.
- Void
- the market voided the play, a withdrawal being the usual reason; the stake returns.
- No Play
- published and graded for calibration, never staked; it carries no money and never joins the record.
- Pass
- a side we priced and declined to publish. A pass counts in our own accounting; the nearest misses appear on the watch list, never here as wagers.
- Correction
- a fact restated after the seal, as a new appended row naming its author, its time and its reason. The original stands forever.
- Superseded
- a pre-gun draft replaced by a later revision. It stays on the log next to its replacement.
Tournament and season results live in the track record; this is the receipt behind them, row by row, forever.