Need A Birdie

The Ledger · Season 2026 · append-only · every row sealed before the gun

Append-only · no edits, ever

The permanent receipt

A row is written before the event with the price taken, the book, the stake and both probabilities at that moment. A correction is a new row, never an edit, so our mistakes stay on the page next to their fixes. Nothing published ever leaves this page.

Rows sealed
345
the whole log, drafts and all
Wagers
29
rows that carried money
Graded
29
settled on final scores
Standing
0
sealed, not yet graded
No Plays
28
published, never staked
Corrections
10
appended, never edited · 288 superseded drafts kept

Row by row, newest card first

The whole append-only ledger, superseded revisions and all. A card we replaced before the gun stays here forever, next to its replacement.

Peter Malnati over Michael KimRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:45 AM ET, Aug 1+180BetMGM41.5%37.3%0u−3.3 pts·Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-B88EF885
Sealed
10:45 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 3, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 41.5% · market 37.3% · edge +4.2 pts
Close
drift −3.3 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+180 at BetMGM
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

David Lipsky over Russell HenleyRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:45 AM ET, Aug 1+196DraftKings38.7%34.7%0u−2.5 pts·Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-C66DA166
Sealed
10:45 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 3, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 38.7% · market 34.7% · edge +4.0 pts
Close
drift −2.5 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+196 at DraftKings
Grade
graded a dead heat, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.
Replaced by
revision 2, sealed 8:15 AM ET, Aug 1 · the standing row →

The full instrument and verification view →

Justin Lower over Doug GhimRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:45 AM ET, Aug 1+188FanDuel38.2%34.6%0u−1.2 pts·Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-42F84662
Sealed
10:45 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 3, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 38.2% · market 34.6% · edge +3.6 pts
Close
drift −1.2 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+188 at FanDuel
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Chris Kirk over Xander SchauffeleRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:45 AM ET, Aug 1+160BetMGM42.0%38.5%0u−2.0 pts·Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-C089E226
Sealed
10:45 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 3, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 42.0% · market 38.5% · edge +3.5 pts
Close
drift −2.0 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+160 at BetMGM
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.
Replaced by
revision 2, sealed 8:15 AM ET, Aug 1 · the standing row →

The full instrument and verification view →

Keegan Bradley over Michael ThorbjornsenRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup10:45 AM ET, Aug 1+100FanDuel48.6%48.8%0u−1.4 pts·Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-F1DDE1FE
Sealed
10:45 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 3, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 48.6% · market 48.8% · edge −0.2 pts
Close
drift −1.4 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+100 at FanDuel
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Emiliano Grillo over Marco PengeRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup7:37 AM ET, Aug 1+105BetOnline56.8%46.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-0E40495A
Sealed
7:37 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 1, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 56.8% · market 46.8% · edge +10.1 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Austin Eckroat over Marco PengeRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup7:37 AM ET, Aug 1+130bet36552.3%42.5%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-1EB4978A
Sealed
7:37 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 1, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 52.3% · market 42.5% · edge +9.7 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Peter Malnati over Michael KimRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup7:37 AM ET, Aug 1+170Bovada41.5%37.6%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-5280B04A
Sealed
7:37 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 1, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 41.5% · market 37.6% · edge +3.8 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
no major US book cleared; offshore only
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Thorbjorn Olesen over Tony FinauRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup7:37 AM ET, Aug 1+121BetOnline50.4%47.8%0u+0.0 pts·Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-2ACA63A8
Sealed
7:37 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 1, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 50.4% · market 47.8% · edge +2.6 pts
Close
drift +0.0 pts toward our side
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Doug Ghim over Justin LowerRocket Classic · Daily Card · R3 · Round 3 matchup7:37 AM ET, Aug 1-165Bovada61.8%65.7%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-E0379A65
Sealed
7:37 AM ET, Aug 1 · revision 1, superseded by revision 2
Sealed numbers
ours 61.8% · market 65.7% · edge −4.0 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
no major US book cleared; offshore only
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Zac Blair over Michael KimRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup10:04 PM ET, Jul 29+108Unibet53.3%48.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-4668F5C9
Sealed
10:04 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 4, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 53.3% · market 48.8% · edge +4.5 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Russell Henley over Ben GriffinRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes10:04 PM ET, Jul 29-105bet36554.2%50.6%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-D1C19C7B
Sealed
10:04 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 4, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 54.2% · market 50.6% · edge +3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Jordan Spieth over Corey ConnersRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup10:04 PM ET, Jul 29+105Pinnacle46.4%50.0%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-A9B39B01
Sealed
10:04 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 4, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 46.4% · market 50.0% · edge −3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Zac Blair over Lucas GloverRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes10:04 PM ET, Jul 29-109Betcris62.7%51.0%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-357F3D50
Sealed
10:04 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 4, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 62.7% · market 51.0% · edge +11.7 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Billy Horschel over Max GreysermanRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup10:04 PM ET, Jul 29+115BetOnline50.0%44.5%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-76C80086
Sealed
10:04 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 4, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 50.0% · market 44.5% · edge +5.5 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded void, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Zac Blair over Michael KimRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:56 PM ET, Jul 29+108Unibet53.3%48.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-26BE7059
Sealed
9:56 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 3, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 53.3% · market 48.8% · edge +4.5 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Russell Henley over Ben GriffinRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:56 PM ET, Jul 29-105bet36554.2%50.6%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-4DB20DFA
Sealed
9:56 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 3, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 54.2% · market 50.6% · edge +3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Jordan Spieth over Corey ConnersRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:56 PM ET, Jul 29+105Pinnacle46.4%50.0%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-F97E3D6D
Sealed
9:56 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 3, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 46.4% · market 50.0% · edge −3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Zac Blair over Lucas GloverRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:56 PM ET, Jul 29-109Betcris62.7%51.0%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-5BC8ADBC
Sealed
9:56 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 3, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 62.7% · market 51.0% · edge +11.7 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Billy Horschel over Max GreysermanRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:56 PM ET, Jul 29+115BetOnline50.0%44.5%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-C2E1BB01
Sealed
9:56 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 3, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 50.0% · market 44.5% · edge +5.5 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded void, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Kohles, Ben top-5Rocket Classic · Weekly Board9:51 PM ET, Jul 29+2350Betcris7.7%4.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-E72327A5
Sealed
9:51 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 2, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 7.7% · market 4.8% · edge +2.9 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim

The full instrument and verification view →

Coody, Pierceson top-5Rocket Classic · Weekly Board9:51 PM ET, Jul 29+2550Betcris3.5%4.3%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-9B41C8CE
Sealed
9:51 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 2, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 3.5% · market 4.3% · edge −0.8 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim

The full instrument and verification view →

Greyserman, Max top-5Rocket Classic · Weekly Board9:51 PM ET, Jul 29+2150Betcris3.7%5.0%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-4B039CF6
Sealed
9:51 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 2, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 3.7% · market 5.0% · edge −1.2 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim

The full instrument and verification view →

Zac Blair over Michael KimRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:51 PM ET, Jul 29+108Unibet53.3%48.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-C3486EF0
Sealed
9:51 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 2, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 53.3% · market 48.8% · edge +4.5 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Russell Henley over Ben GriffinRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:51 PM ET, Jul 29-105bet36554.2%50.6%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-077314A7
Sealed
9:51 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 2, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 54.2% · market 50.6% · edge +3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Russell Henley over Ben GriffinRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes9:08 PM ET, Jul 29-105bet36554.2%50.6%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-7AB1C2DE
Sealed
9:08 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 1, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 54.2% · market 50.6% · edge +3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Russell Henley over Cameron YoungRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:08 PM ET, Jul 29+125bet36548.5%42.4%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-87B6396B
Sealed
9:08 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 1, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 48.5% · market 42.4% · edge +6.1 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Lee Hodges over Ryo HisatsuneRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:08 PM ET, Jul 29+100bet36552.0%47.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-2E568C71
Sealed
9:08 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 1, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 52.0% · market 47.8% · edge +4.2 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Eric Cole over Keegan BradleyRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:08 PM ET, Jul 29+100bet36551.4%47.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-2885DC47
Sealed
9:08 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 1, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 51.4% · market 47.8% · edge +3.6 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Zac Blair over Michael KimRocket Classic · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup9:08 PM ET, Jul 29-105bet36553.3%48.8%0u··Superseded
Pick ID
NAB-1908CFAE
Sealed
9:08 PM ET, Jul 29 · revision 1, superseded by revision 5
Sealed numbers
ours 53.3% · market 48.8% · edge +4.5 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
sealed before the shelf existed; no claim
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Rows only ever get added, so this page can only get longer. The log holds 345 sealed rows; 29 carried money.
What each state meanspush, dead heat, void, correction, No Play and pass, defined once
Standing
sealed before the gun; the market has not graded it yet.
Won / Lost
settled on the final scores, exactly as the market settles.
Dead heat
a tie under the market’s rules; the settlement splits accordingly.
Push
the market returned the stake; no units move.
Void
the market voided the play, a withdrawal being the usual reason; the stake returns.
No Play
published and graded for calibration, never staked; it carries no money and never joins the record.
Pass
a side we priced and declined to publish. A pass counts in our own accounting; the nearest misses appear on the watch list, never here as wagers.
Correction
a fact restated after the seal, as a new appended row naming its author, its time and its reason. The original stands forever.
Superseded
a pre-gun draft replaced by a later revision. It stays on the log next to its replacement.

Tournament and season results live in the track record; this is the receipt behind them, row by row, forever.